TL;DR: The introduction explores the rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, particularly generative AI, and its potential impact on the workforce. While some jobs may be replaced, the main effect will be a displacement of tasks rather than complete job elimination. Organizations that fail to integrate AI effectively risk obsolescence, while those that embrace it will thrive. The introduction sets the stage for exploring the intersection of AI and human cognition within organizations and how this will evolve towards 2030 across three distinct eras.
- AI is replacing tasks, not entire jobs
- The role of the individual remains crucial
- Organizations must become AI-driven to survive
- Ascension explores the intersection of AI and human cognition
- The journey towards 2030 is divided into three eras
- The impact of AI will be felt across seven distinct executive functions
As we witness the dramatic advancements within the field of artificial intelligence, and specifically generative AI, it’s easy to assume that individual roles in the workplace are becoming obsolete. The fear is that AI will replace not just jobs, but our very purpose in work. However, upon deeper examination, it becomes clear that these technologies are not direct replacements for jobs, but for tasks.
In short, there is no big green button. The near future still requires humans. Albeit, in different roles than today.
The Miracle is Behind Us
Sam Altman, CEO
OpenAI
The Role of The Individual
As we look ahead over the next few years, it is increasingly clear that the role of the individual is still important – from the engineering of an AI enterprise platform to prompting, assessing, refining, and representing the output of AI to stakeholders and decision-makers. And of course, there are many tasks that cannot even be conducted by a generative AI platform.
Whilst some jobs will be replaced by AI, the main impact, at least for the next five to 10 years, will not be a replacement but a displacement. People are expected to change what they do and how they work to fit around AI.
In early 2024, Klarna, the Sweden-based fintech company in the buy-now-pay-later space, partnered with OpenAI to improve customer service interactions. According to Forbes, in just one month, the bot was managing two-thirds of customer service chats—2.3 million conversations—in 23 markets and 35 languages. The chatbot’s efficiency resulted in fewer errors, a 25% decrease in repeat inquiries, and reduced average conversation times from 11 to 2 minutes.
Projections on the impact of generative AI on the UK workforce, carried out by the Institute for Public Policy Research indicated, that even more than displacement, the biggest change will be augmentation. With existing roles enhanced with AI. See table below. The analysis also indicated that If generative AI is widely integrated across the economy, it could provide an economic boost of 13 percent of GDP – starting with back office jobs (Repetitive tasks) before moving on to impact cognitive and analytic tasks).
Impact of Generative AI on the UK Workforce
Number of jobs and exposure to augmentation or displacement
Source: Institute for Public Policy Research, March 2024
Whilst the AI assistant handles a significant portion of customer inquiries, Klarna has stated that there will still be a need for human agents. From reviewing logs to ensuring bot accuracy, and, crucially, handling more complex or sensitive cases that require personalized assistance. They have started to transition their employees into specialized roles that complement the chatbot’s functions.
Clearly, some employees will be significantly impacted by generative AI. And, of course, only a fraction of them will transition into the new specialist roles. But, for most employees, across the majority of industries and professions, a direct replacement by AI is not possible.
Therefore, what should keep people awake at night is not losing their jobs to AI, but losing their jobs to organizations that have better harnessed AI’s potential.
The Advent of the Calculator Didn’t Render the Organization’s Treasurer Redundant; Instead, It Empowered Them to Achieve More. Similarly, AI Is Set to Augment and Elevate Our Capabilities.
Become an AI Business to Survive.
Organizations that fail to embed AI in ways that enhance human roles will quickly fall behind. Others will surge ahead, leveraging AI to accelerate their processes, cut costs, and improve outcomes, while also unlocking new capabilities and reaching new markets. Organizations that don’t integrate AI effectively risk obsolescence.
Mark Holden, Chief Strategy Officer, PHD Worldwide – Interviewed June 2024
When contemplating enhancements within an organization, the primary consideration usually revolves around cost savings. How can an organization boost efficiency in its operations? This approach often leads to the replacement of existing functions and roles with AI.
Although this is a valuable area for consideration, it may overshadow the expansive opportunities that generative AI presents to organizations: the ability to amplify productivity with existing resources and to innovate entirely new products and services that can transform the industry.
To that end, we see that there are three levels of AI investment.
Joanna O'Connell, Chief Intelligence Officer, OMG NA – Interviewed June 2024
The Three Levels of AI Investment
An organisational framework for organisations to prioritise their investments into AI transformation:
Level 1: Efficiencies (Cost Saving) – Doing the Same with Less
This level focuses on utilizing AI to optimize existing processes and achieve cost savings. Examples in marketing include:
- Automating repetitive tasks: AI can automate tasks like scheduling social media posts, sending bulk emails, and generating basic reports, freeing up marketing personnel to focus on more strategic initiatives.
- Chatbots for customer service: AI-powered chatbots can handle routine customer inquiries, reducing the need for human intervention and lowering operational costs.
- Audience insights: AI can analyze structured and unstructured data sets and pull out key insights. Saving desk research time.
Level 2: Effectiveness (Greater Impact) – Doing More with the Same
This level involves leveraging AI to enhance existing marketing activities and generate a greater impact. Some examples include:
- Personalization at scale: AI can personalize various aspects of the customer experience, such as product recommendations, email content, and website offers, leading to increased customer engagement and satisfaction.
- Dynamic pricing: AI algorithms can analyze market trends and customer behavior to set optimal pricing strategies, maximizing revenue and market share.
- Real-time marketing optimization: AI can analyze campaign performance data in real-time, allowing marketers to optimize campaigns on the fly and improve their effectiveness.
Level 3: Invention (Transformational Impact) – Doing Something Never Done Before
This level represents the most advanced application of AI, enabling businesses to create entirely new marketing strategies and experiences that were previously impossible. This may involve:
- New forms of content creation: For example, imagining novel brand collaborations and/or video experiences that surpass current capabilities.
- New forms of interactive experiences: For example, pioneering low-latency voice LLMs to create conversational brand experiences beyond anything encountered to date.
- Intuitive Experiences: More intuitive personalization through generative creation based on more intelligent inference of audience signals.
Regardless of which of the three levels the generative AI investments fall into, it is crucial for organizations to be specific about exactly where the intervention should take place – with a clear perspective on how it will integrate with the current workforce.
Chris Stephenson, Global Head of Strategic Engagement, OMG – Interviewed June 2024
Ascension explores this opportunity to leverage investment in AI within organizations at the intersection of AI and human cognition, identifying where they complement and enhance each other.
Considering this within the context of how things are likely to evolve as we move towards 2030, it’s important to recognize that the evolutionary nature of technological development is not linear. However, for the purpose of clarity, it serves us well to consider the evolution in distinct phases. To that end, we have delineated three eras of development.
Although organizations will advance non-linearly between these eras, this structure provides a framework for understanding how things are likely to change. While some may progress faster or slower, we anticipate that the large majority of developments will fall into each of these three eras as outlined below.
The AI Experimentation Era (2024-2026)
A phase marked by the individual use of LLMs and Diffusion models, new software with GenAI capabilities, utilization of existing platforms such as Microsoft Copilot and Adobe Firefly, and the early integration of GenAI into enterprise platforms. It is a period of pilot projects and refinement, setting the stage for more profound changes to come.
The AI Acceleration Era (2026-2028)
Following the early experimentation, AI becomes a fundamental element of marketing – with more mature applications of GenAI in existing platforms. It is used by a large portion of the workforce, albeit mainly for efficiency and effectiveness. This era focuses on replacing and/or enhancing current functions.
The AI Elevation Era (2028-2030)
With efficiencies and effectiveness realized by existing platforms, the focus will turn to creating more intelligent systems that can take greater control of decision-making. As individuals are freed up, attention will shift to elevation – exploring new marketing capabilities beyond what we can envision today.
We explore each of these three eras in The Winds section, drawing from expert opinions on how technologies could evolve across this period and how they could be used in marketing. And within each, the impact that the technologies are likely to have on the functions that are performed every day.
To that end, we need to define the functions carried out within marketing organizations and agencies. Some of these functions are likely to be significantly impacted by generative AI, while others will still require human intervention, but all will be in some form shaped between now and 2030.
Understanding the impact of AI on these functions is crucial to charting a course for marketing through the storm.
Marketing Executive Functions and AI
Ascension sets out the seven executive functions of marketing—Sensing, Visioning, Defining, Generating, Developing, Judging, and Actioning. In The Flood section, we examine how each function is likely to be impacted over time.
Our research, conducted with senior marketers and agency experts, including an exclusive study with WARC, has enabled us to predict how each of these functions are going to be impacted by generative AI.
We have also investigated why these changes are likely to occur and what developments in individual competencies and technology will be necessary to facilitate them. This provides a roadmap for the future, allowing us to start implementing changes today for tomorrow’s landscape.
We have used the metaphor of a storm to structure the project’s content.
We encourage you to begin with the Lightning Flash of AI’s emergence, followed swiftly by the Thunder as its initial impact is felt across the industry. You can then explore the timeline of AI’s impact in the Winds, and the Flood as it influences marketing’s seven executive functions. The storm will eventually pass, and in the Clearing, you can cast your eyes beyond the horizon to explore a future marketing state – shaped by artificial general intelligence (AGI).
Change will never be this slow again; we must all adapt swiftly to thrive. Our intent behind this project is to create a tangible and hands-on guide for the industry, informing and illustrating how we can all be active participants—rather than passengers—in this revolution. We must harness this storm, utilizing the powerful winds of change to propel us forward.
Thank you for being here – and a very warm welcome to the Ascension Project.
