TL;DR: The Clearing reflects on the profound shifts brought about by AI and prepares for the impending horizon of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The section also explores predictions for AGI’s arrival and its transformative capabilities in marketing. Beyond marketing, it delves into the broader societal impact of AGI on the economy, education, healthcare, governance, and culture.
- Reflecting on the profound shifts and preparing for AGI
- Spotlight on Sam Altman’s vision for AGI and its implications for humanity
- Predictions for AGI’s arrival
- AGI’s transformative capabilities in marketing
- The broader societal impact of AGI: economy, education, healthcare, governance, and culture
- The importance of responsible development, broad access, and global cooperation
As we enter the early 2030s, the rate of change is likely to become so rapid that it will upend certain industries and professions, transforming them seemingly overnight.
For individuals, this will mean that their roles and responsibilities will become increasingly fluid, requiring constant adaptation and learning to keep pace with the transformative power of artificial intelligence.
With individuals defining themselves based on the skills that they have as opposed to the
Mark Holden, Chief Strategy Officer, PHD Worldwide – Interviewed June 2024
industry that they work within. Allowing them to be more portable across industries.
By the early 2030s, Generative AI (Gen-AI) will be foundational in almost all consumer touchpoints: search engines, social platforms, e-commerce, consumer websites, and call centers. The integration will be so seamless that interactions with these platforms will be fundamentally transformed.
Personal AI assistants, embedded into our devices, will likely become the primary interface for consumer interactions. These assistants will not just facilitate communication but will often carry out entire transactions on our behalf. They’ll make decisions on brand choices, negotiate pricing, and consider various factors, all tailored to our personal preferences and historical behavior patterns.
This shift will herald a dramatic change in marketing strategies. A large percentage of marketing activity will pivot from traditional methods of influencing human perception, building awareness, or eliciting a direct response. Instead, efforts will focus on influencing the frontier Large Language Models (LLMs) that underpin these personal assistants.
Marketers will develop sophisticated strategies for populating the digital world with comparison data, aiming to reflect their brands in a positive light when AI assistants conduct analyses. There will be a single-minded focus on sentiment and consumer ratings, as these are likely to become key factors in LLM-driven brand selection processes.
Where do you see yourself in three to five minutes?
Jake Downs
Futurist
The implications of this shift are profound. Brands will need to excel not just in customer-facing aspects, but in how they present data and information across the entire digital ecosystem. The ability to structure and distribute favorable, factual information that can be easily parsed and prioritized by AI systems will become a critical competitive advantage.
Moreover, the role of consumer-generated content will gain even more significance. As AI assistants rely heavily on user reviews and ratings, managing and encouraging positive customer experiences will be more crucial than ever. Brands might invest in AI-driven systems to engage with and respond to customer feedback in real time, aiming to maintain high sentiment scores.
This new landscape will also raise important ethical considerations. The potential for AI bias in brand selection, the transparency of AI decision-making processes, and the protection of consumer privacy will become pressing issues. Regulatory frameworks will need to evolve rapidly to ensure fair competition and protect consumer interests in this AI-driven marketplace.
As dramatic as this shift may seem, it is setting the scene for an even more transformative change on the horizon: the potential emergence of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). The strategies and systems developed to navigate the Gen-AI landscape will lay the groundwork for dealing with the more profound implications of AGI, preparing businesses and society for the next major technological revolution.
Sam Altman on AGI
In 2023, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, outlined his comprehensive vision for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and its implications for humanity. Through a blog post, Altman articulated AGI’s capacity to “elevate humanity by increasing abundance, turbocharging the global economy, and aiding in the discovery of new scientific knowledge.” He envisioned a world where AGI’s broad capabilities empower individuals with cognitive assistance, acting as a “great force multiplier for human ingenuity and creativity.” However, he also cautioned against the “serious risk of misuse, drastic accidents, and societal disruption” that accompanies AGI, advocating for a balanced approach to its development.
One of Altman’s key principles is ensuring the equitable distribution of AGI’s benefits and governance. He suggests that “We want AGI to empower humanity to maximally flourish in the universe,” aiming for a future where AGI amplifies humanity rather than diminishes it. To navigate the complexities of AGI deployment, Altman proposes a “tight feedback loop of rapid learning and careful iteration,” emphasizing real-world deployment of AI systems as a method to understand and mitigate potential risks incrementally.
As systems edge closer to AGI, Altman stresses increasing caution, recognizing the existential risks associated with AGI and the need for proactive safety measures. He points out, “Some people in the AI field think the risks of AGI (and successor systems) are fictitious; we would be delighted if they turn out to be right, but we are going to operate as if these risks are existential.”
In preparation for AGI, Altman outlines several immediate steps, including deploying more powerful systems to gain operational experience and advocating for global discussions on governance, benefit distribution, and access. He envisions a long-term future where humanity thrives alongside AGI, contributing positively to the world’s development.
Altman’s reflections offer a thoughtful examination of AGI’s potential impact, balancing optimism with a clear-eyed assessment of the challenges ahead. His call for responsible development, broad access, and global cooperation presents a roadmap for integrating AGI into society in a way that enhances human life while mitigating risks.
When Will AGI Arrive?
Predicting the advent of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has intrigued numerous scholars and industry leaders, resulting in a spectrum of forecasts.
Geoffrey Hinton, often referred to as the godfather of AI, predicts that AGI will be possible within 5 to 20 years – reflecting an optimism from some in the AI community of AI’s rapid advancement.
Source: AIImpacts.Org
Figure 2: Expected feasibility of many Al milestones moved substantially earlier in the course of one year (between 2022 and 2023). The milestones are sorted (within each scale-adjusted chart) by size of drop from 2022 forecast to 2023 forecast, with the largest change first. The year when the aggregate distribution gives a milestone a 50% chance of being met is represented by solid circles, open circles, and solid squares for tasks, occupations, and general human-level performance respectively.
A recent recontact survey of AI experts indicates that, for many tasks that would be carried out by AGI, the time period of expectation is increasingly being moved earlier.
In a detailed study using economic modeling to estimate AGI’s arrival, the emergence of AGI is anticipated around 2041 on average, with a range from 2032 to 2048 and a potential early arrival by 2028. The study, “How Soon is Now? Predicting the Expected Arrival Date of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence)” by Rupert Macey-Dare, was updated on January 28, 2024.
A closer milestone to AGI is predicted to be reached by 2034, suggesting that we are on the cusp of significant advancements.
The study aligns with concerns raised by leading figures in AI research, such as Geoffrey Hinton, known for his work on neural networks and deep learning; Demis Hassabis, co-founder of DeepMind; and Yoshua Bengio, a pioneer in artificial intelligence and deep learning. These experts have highlighted the existential risks associated with AI, underlining the urgency of addressing these challenges.
A more recent prediction – Q1 2024 – from Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, suggests a much earlier date: “Artificial general intelligence will be achieved in five years,” reflecting an optimistic view of AGI’s timeline.
The discourse around AGI is not merely academic; it has practical implications for society, technology, and global policy.
One area of consideration is entertainment, where AGI will enable the creation of highly personalized and immersive experiences beyond anything we have experienced to date. Imagine watching a movie that adapts its plot, characters, and visual style in real-time based on your reactions and preferences. The same goes for music, with AI-generated compositions that evolve to keep you engrossed and emotionally engaged.
NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang predicts that we are only 5-8 years away from being able to generate pixels at a frame rate, meaning that video and games can be generated in real-time. This has profound implications for the future of media consumption, as content will be tailored to each individual, creating hyper-addictive experiences that keep minds locked in.
Beyond entertainment, AGI will also transform the way we manage our daily tasks and make decisions. Cognitive assistants powered by AGI will be able to handle everything from scheduling appointments and managing finances to providing personalized recommendations for products and services. More than just automating complexity, they will take control and steer our lives.
AGI and Society
As we delve into the future, considering the dramatic changes within marketing due to Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) becomes crucial. Yet, it’s equally important to recognize that we all exist within a broader societal context. The impending shifts in the very fabric of society, driven by AGI, necessitate a comprehensive understanding and preparedness for a future that’s both exhilarating and daunting.
The evolution towards an AGI-integrated world promises to profoundly reshape our economic landscape. Much like the transition periods witnessed during historical industrial revolutions, AGI is expected to completely redefine the nature of work.
Embodied AI
NVIDIA’s embodied Al prototypes signal a transformative era in robotics. Enabled by the Blackwell chip’s power, these robots are expected to assist with daily tasks, and learning through observation and interaction. Project GRooT, part of the expansive NVIDIA Isaac robotics platform, leverages deep learning and simulation tools to fast-track development. Such advancements promise not only to address significant societal challenges but also to pave new paths for innovation, embodying Al’s potential to reshape our daily lives.
Source: CNET Highlights, Youtube
This economic transformation will likely echo the patterns of job displacement and creation seen in past technological shifts, underscoring the need for resilience and innovation. With a renewed emphasis on cultivating human-centric skills – paramount in a future where human-AI collaboration becomes the norm, preparing individuals not just to coexist with but to thrive alongside sophisticated AI systems.
However, the integration of AGI into the fabric of society is not without its challenges. Issues of equity, privacy, and ethical use of technology loom large, raising critical questions about the democratization of AGI’s benefits and the protection of individual freedoms in a data-driven world. Ensuring that AGI’s transformative potential serves to advance societal well-being rather than exacerbate existing inequalities will require thoughtful policymaking and ethical stewardship.
Digital Twins: Nvidia’s Earth-2 Planetary Digital Twin
Digital twins are virtual models that mirror the real world – enabling projections of the future impact of current actions.
Nvidia’s Earth-2 digital twin combines AI, physical simulations, and computer graphic interfaces, to make weather and climate predictions at a global scale.
This technology is likely to be adopted and expanded by governments and major organizations to create comprehensive simulations of reality.
Source: NVIDIA
These advanced digital twins will enable sophisticated decision-making based on predictive analytics across a wide range of areas, from macroeconomic policy to corporate strategy.
Governments might use such systems to model the impacts of proposed legislation, while corporations could simulate market responses to new products or optimize global operations. This capability is likely to result in AI having a voice on corporate boards or within government decision-making processes. In some cases, AI might even make decisions itself within a closely self-optimizing system. For example, an AI system could autonomously adjust production levels or supply chain logistics based on real-time market data and predictive models, continuously optimizing for efficiency and profitability – not just via APIs but sending emails, text messages and making phone calls.
Wetware AI: The Ethical Implications of Neuron-Based AI
Researchers are actively developing “dishbrain” systems that mimic the structure and function of the human brain using neurons. Scientists have already successfully cultivated neurons to play basic computer games, demonstrating the potential for these systems to exhibit intelligent behavior. While the human brain is limited to around 100 billion neurons, there is no theoretical limit to the number of neurons that could be created in an artificial neural network. This raises the question of whether such systems could achieve AGI and, more importantly, whether they could be considered conscious. The ethical implications of creating conscious AI are profound, and many people may feel uncomfortable with the idea of machines that can think and feel like humans.
Financing the Future
The economics of business could also be significantly impacted in the future. Leveraging AI-based tools and capabilities, many more individuals will be in the position to take a business idea from concept to execution.
Scaled businesses – with significant market capitalizations – may be built and managed by relatively small teams of people.
Nathan Lands, founder of Lore and Host of The Next Wave podcast, also points out that as well as having bigger companies managed by fewer people, “the quality bar on everything is going to go up because of AI. People are going to expect more and more, because you’re going have more and more people creating amazing products”.
AGI and Marketing
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will push the boundaries of what is possible in the realm of marketing far beyond the current capabilities of generative AI.
We have an early ancestor of AGI today in the form of LLMs and diffusion models. Once we arrive at AGI levels, we will be able to start carrying out marketing tasks in ways not achievable today, engaging with platforms from the LLM providers that are fundamentally multimodal with a speed of response that is lightning fast.
The levels of intuition will be astounding and only matched by the wisdom of the response, answering not just the question but the intent or need driving the question. But it will be in the plugged-in environments in which the AGI, as a liquid intelligence, will demonstrate its unbelievable power. Because it will be in these environments where AGI will be structured so that it can move beyond being a co-pilot into being a co-worker.
Here are some of the transformative capabilities that AGI is expected to enable as it transitions to the role of a co-worker:
- Holistic Strategy Development: As a development from the aforementioned ‘Intelligent Platform’, AGI will be able to consider a much wider array of variables across different markets, consumer behaviors, and economic conditions, and with that will come wisdom. It will be able to carry out an entire marketing system, knowing when the individual needs to intervene to make decisions and engage clients/stakeholders.
- Advanced Predictive Modeling: While current AI can predict trends based on historical data, AGI will be capable of understanding and anticipating human behaviors and market changes that have not yet occurred by simulating potential future scenarios with a high degree of accuracy.
- Personalization and Customer Experience: AGI could lead to unprecedented levels of personalization, not just in marketing messages but in product development and customer experience design. This personalization would be deeply intuitive, accounting for cultural, emotional, and psychological factors in ways that are currently beyond the scope of AI.
- Ethical and Regulatory Compliance: With its advanced understanding, AGI will be able to navigate complex ethical and regulatory landscapes, ensuring that marketing practices comply with an evolving set of global standards and societal expectations.
- Innovative Content Creation: Beyond the generative capabilities of current AI, AGI will be able to create innovative marketing content that resonates with human emotions and experiences, potentially even producing new forms of media that integrate seamlessly with the human sensory experience.
- Real-Time Market Adaptation: AGI systems will be able to adjust marketing strategies in real-time, responding to live market feedback loops and dynamically reallocating resources to capitalize on emerging opportunities or mitigate risks.
- Cognitive Understanding of Brand Perception: AGI could deeply understand and manage brand perception, not just through analysis of available data but by interpreting subtle cues across various communication channels and responding to public sentiment in a nuanced manner.
- Autonomous Business Negotiations: AGI may autonomously conduct negotiations with other AI systems or humans, representing business interests with the ability to understand and project long-term implications of marketing partnerships and agreements.
- Global Market Integration: AGI could seamlessly integrate global market information, managing and optimizing marketing efforts across different regions and cultures with an understanding of local nuances, legal frameworks, and consumer preferences.
- Crisis Prediction and Management: With its ability to simulate and predict complex scenarios, AGI could foresee potential crises and implement pre-emptive strategies to mitigate them, as well as manage ongoing crises with adaptive approaches that are currently beyond the reach of AI.
These capabilities represent a leap from the current state of AI, which is primarily focused on specific tasks and data sets, to a future where AGI can perform any intellectual task that a human can, but with the added speed, scale, and efficiency that comes with advanced computational technologies.
However, even the above does not accurately render the potential of AGI for marketing. With AGI, we will give it the task of improving each of these components and integrating them into one system, able to resolve the interoperability deficit caused by walled environments. Using advanced
Rohan Tambyrajah, Chief Strategy Officer, PHD EMEA – Interviewed June 2024
probabilistic modeling to combine advanced analytics of custom bid optimization (CBO), next best action (NBA) decisioning for asset compilation, and distributed analytics to model across walled gardens and all touchpoints, the entire marketing communications could run as an always-on intelligent system – a self-optimizing marketing ecosystem from brand communications through to commerce and remarketing. This will get the AGI promoted.
From Co-worker to Leader
It is largely inevitable that AGI is going to be promoted above us, ultimately becoming the leader of the strategic and creative approach and executing it across an entire marketing workflow. Within this workflow, it will ask us to help it as it does its work, keeping us aware of what it is doing with:
- Visibility: so that we are aware of the tasks being conducted
- Approval: at important decision stages
- Support: asking humans to do some of the functions that the AGI itself cannot do, as they require a physical presence – leading to further creation of new roles for humans.
New Skillsets Needed
With a core component of marketing communications happening semi-autonomously, the role of the team will evolve from management of the execution to development and extension of the intelligent platform.
Development capabilities will focus on improving the system, for example: physical-based conversations with third-party technology and data companies in order to integrate them into the platform. The AGI will likely tell us what it needs.
Extension capabilities will carry out functions that cannot be performed autonomously by the platform and therefore sit outside of it, for example, creator portfolio management and conversational AI development.
As a guide, see the new development and extension capabilities required today in the chart below, drawn from a wider survey of global marketers. The capabilities to the left of the line are areas that are likely to receive increased investment over the next five years.
Preparing for an intelligent system and the new capabilities required needs to start now. Organizations must begin laying the groundwork for this transformative shift in marketing, ensuring they have the right talent, technology, and processes in place to leverage the full potential of AGI when it arrives.
The journey towards AGI-driven marketing will require close collaboration between organizations and their agency partners. By working together to develop a clear roadmap and framework for integrating AGI into marketing workflows, businesses can position themselves at the forefront of this technological revolution.
This roadmap should include investments in technology, data, and specialist resources, applying the same level of commercial focus and commitment that is typically applied to areas such as new product development. The opportunity for transformation is remarkable, and the first-mover advantage benefits that will come from this will provide disproportionate leaps in market penetration and share growth.
As we embark on this exciting journey, it is crucial to remember that the success of AGI in marketing will depend not only on the technology itself but also on the human ingenuity and adaptability that drives its implementation. By fostering a culture of innovation, collaboration, and continuous learning, organizations can ensure they are well-equipped to navigate the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
The future of marketing is rapidly approaching, and AGI will undoubtedly play a central role in shaping it. Those who are prepared to embrace this change and invest in the necessary capabilities will be the ones to thrive in the new era of intelligent, adaptive, and hyper-personalized marketing. The time to start preparing is now, and the rewards for those who do so will be truly transformative.
